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Hail To The King

Futures · Futures · Started Jul 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-7.0%
Max Drawdown
82.4%
Trades
402
Win Trades
30.3%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
29.9%

About this strategy

Futures Swing Trading System

Currencies Financials / Indexes

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20196.7-0.54.8-11.0-0.910.48.2
20209.322.730.89.95.43.90.38.4-14.7-19.013.3-0.379.1
20215.31.428.8-5.5-7.56.23.111.7-13.812.7-8.8-7.220.7
2022-4.81.8-1.81.4-0.9-11.722.52.2-15.8-13.0-36.114.4-43.3
2023-19.4-34.94.7-3.6-6.2-2.6-5.57.5-6.1-3.00.00.0-55.3
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/1/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age87 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades402
# Profitable122
% Profitable30.3%
Avg trade duration3.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown82.4%
drawdown periodNov 18, 2021 - Aug 29, 2023
Annual Return (Compounded)-7.0%
Avg win$4,307
Avg loss$1,901

Ratios

W:L ratio0.99
Sharpe Ratio-0.17
Sortino Ratio-0.25
Calmar Ratio-0.04

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.09
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life158.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-202.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-7.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-2.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity449.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss96.5%
Chance of 30% account loss83.0%
Chance of 40% account loss54.0%
Chance of 50% account loss27.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)12.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)2.5%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.5%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,901
Avg Win$4,307
# Winners122
Sum Trade PL (losers)$532,203
Sum Trade PL (winners)$525,505
Num Months Winners26
# Losers280
% Winners30.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table87

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)4616.40
Avg Position Time (hrs)76.94
Avg Trade Length3.20
Last Trade Ago1056

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)4.60
Daily leverage (max)39.34

Regression

Alpha-0.02
Beta0.13
Treynor Index-0.12

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-9.06
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.93
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.21
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.12
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.11

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.01
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.03
df53
t0.07
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.96
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.89
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.96
Sortino ratio0.05
Upside Potential Ratio1.90
Upside part of mean0.48
Downside part of mean-0.47
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms24
N negative terms30
N of observations54
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error52
t(b)0.17
p(b)0.43
t(a)0.03
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.39
Treynor index (mean / b)0.33
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
Mean-0.06
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.16
df53
t-0.34
p0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.77
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.77
Sortino ratio-0.22
Upside Potential Ratio1.59
Upside part of mean0.44
Downside part of mean-0.50
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms24
N negative terms30
N of observations54
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion-0.06
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.07
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error52
t(b)0.19
p(b)0.42
t(a)-0.36
p(a)0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.31
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.41
Jensen alpha (a)-0.07
VaR(95%)0.17
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.21
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
Mean-0.01
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.05
df1190
t-0.10
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.87
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.97
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.87
Sortino ratio-0.07
Upside Potential Ratio6.72
Upside part of mean1.41
Downside part of mean-1.43
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms402
N negative terms789
N of observations1191
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance0.01
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error1189
t(b)3.68
p(b)0.43
t(a)-0.31
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.11
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
Mean-0.06
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.20
df1190
t-0.43
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.72
Sortino ratio-0.28
Upside Potential Ratio6.42
Upside part of mean1.39
Downside part of mean-1.45
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms402
N negative terms789
N of observations1191
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion-0.06
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance0.01
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.09
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error1189
t(b)3.60
p(b)0.43
t(a)-0.60
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.46
Jensen alpha (a)-0.09
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.03
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.39
df130
t-0.28
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.38
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.38
Sortino ratio-0.64
Upside Potential Ratio3.87
Upside part of mean0.20
Downside part of mean-0.24
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms121
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.10
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)0.74
p(b)0.46
t(a)-0.45
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.68
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
Mean-0.04
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.44
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.44
df130
t-0.31
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.33
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.34
Sortino ratio-0.71
Upside Potential Ratio3.79
Upside part of mean0.20
Downside part of mean-0.24
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms121
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.06
Mean of criterion-0.04
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)0.74
p(b)0.46
t(a)-0.47
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.86
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations54
Minimum0.74
Quartile 10.94
Median1
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.34
Mean of quarter 10.87
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.14
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.74
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.27
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.30
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.16
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.43
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.19
Number of observations1191
Minimum0.89
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low91
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high108
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.14
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low14
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high10
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-3.24
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.65
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.10
Median0.17
Quartile 30.25
Maximum0.72
Mean of quarter 10.06
Mean of quarter 20.17
Mean of quarter 30.25
Mean of quarter 40.72
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.72
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations25
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.74
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.25
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.29
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.49
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.38
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.67
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.37
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.40
Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.06
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-393595936
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)649
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.05
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.05
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.16
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.04
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.13
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.85
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.16
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.16
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.86

Trading record

Placed 343 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MNQ Z3long2Oct 9, 2023Oct 13, 2023$213
MNQ Z3long7Oct 3, 2023Oct 3, 2023($994)
MNQ Z3long4Sep 14, 2023Sep 15, 2023($1,390)
MNQ U3long4Sep 13, 2023Sep 14, 2023$494
MNQ U3long3Sep 11, 2023Sep 12, 2023($432)
MNQ U3long4Aug 29, 2023Sep 6, 2023$2,814
MNQ U3long6Aug 4, 2023Aug 4, 2023($939)
MNQ U3long10Jul 25, 2023Jul 26, 2023($1,009)
MNQ U3long3Jul 18, 2023Jul 20, 2023($518)
MNQ U3long4Jun 28, 2023Jul 5, 2023$1,286
MNQ M3long16Jun 6, 2023Jun 6, 2023($1,079)
MNQ M3long7Jun 2, 2023Jun 2, 2023($1,043)
MNQ M3long18May 31, 2023May 31, 2023($2,051)
MNQ M3long5May 10, 2023May 10, 2023$5
NQ M3long1Apr 20, 2023Apr 20, 2023($1,173)
NQ H3long1Mar 9, 2023Mar 9, 2023($1,113)
NQ H3long3Mar 9, 2023Mar 9, 2023$2,541
NQ H3short1Mar 8, 2023Mar 8, 2023($888)
NQ H3long3Mar 7, 2023Mar 7, 2023($984)
NQ H3long1Mar 6, 2023Mar 6, 2023($853)
NQ H3long1Mar 3, 2023Mar 3, 2023$3,062
NQ H3long2Feb 27, 2023Feb 27, 2023($526)
NQ H3long6Feb 23, 2023Feb 23, 2023($2,238)
NQ H3long5Feb 23, 2023Feb 23, 2023$160
NQ H3long2Feb 22, 2023Feb 22, 2023($2,046)
NQ H3long3Feb 17, 2023Feb 17, 2023($2,169)
NQ H3short3Feb 16, 2023Feb 16, 2023($1,209)
NQ H3short5Feb 15, 2023Feb 15, 2023($2,265)
NQ H3long3Feb 14, 2023Feb 14, 2023($6,849)
NQ H3long2Feb 10, 2023Feb 10, 2023($1,516)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.