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NASDAQ Momentum

Equity · Stocks · Started Dec 2019

Trades Own Strategy BrokerTransmit

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
4.0%
Max Drawdown
9.8%
Trades
252
Win Trades
63.5%
Profit Factor
1.80
Win Months
19.8%

About this strategy

Buy top trending NASDAQ stocks (10-15) then manage the trades and repeat. There are a few early exit conditions to get out of a stock if needed, but mostly stocks are bought once a month and strategy repeats. If the system exits as stock, the stock will be sold and its position will be replaced with either another stock, the QQQ ETF, or the TLT ETF based on the systems assessment of the the overall market. All decisions are made on an End of Day basis so there is not intraday trading with this system (unless a stop happens to get hit the same day as entry which is rare, but can happen). With this system all system funds are almost always invested in the market. The strategy will always trade based on a $50k account size and the trades will usually be in $2.5k, $5k, $10k or $15k bucket sizes. I will always buy shares rounded down to fit into one of the $2.5k-$15k sizes without going over the bucket size and alert subscribers to the exact percentage of the overall strategy portfolio being allocated to each position.

Of course, maybe this is obvious, but this is a strategy that trades stocks and ETFs so you want to have your commissions as low as possible. Sometimes the strategy is trading big stocks like AMZN, TSLA, etc. and we are only buying maybe 3-10 shares to keep the allocation percentages balanced correctly so low commissions are very helpful!

Non-hedged Equity Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20198.48.4
2020-0.410.92.45.10.61.84.12.0-6.0-0.93.71.627.0
2021-0.70.9-0.20.10.2-0.9-0.20.6-0.40.4-0.3-2.4-2.7
2022-1.8-0.80.60.0-0.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-2.8
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/9/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age82 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades252
# Profitable160
% Profitable63.5%
Avg trade duration14.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown9.8%
drawdown periodSept 02, 2020 - May 04, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)4.0%
Avg win$250
Avg loss$248

Ratios

W:L ratio1.76
Sharpe Ratio0.37
Sortino Ratio0.57
Calmar Ratio1.09

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.17
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life144.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-115.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)4.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)4.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity9.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss12.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?185449
TOS percent100.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$248
Avg Win$250
# Winners160
Sum Trade PL (losers)$22,790
Sum Trade PL (winners)$40,003
Num Months Winners18
# Losers92
% Winners63.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct181

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table81

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)20965.57
Avg Position Time (hrs)349.43
Avg Trade Length14.60
Last Trade Ago1565

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.29
Daily leverage (max)0.99

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.04
Treynor Index0.14

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades2.84
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.18
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.44
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.12
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.35

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.07
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.76
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.74
df39
t1.38
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.84
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.34
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.83
Sortino ratio1.87
Upside Potential Ratio3.64
Upside part of mean0.13
Downside part of mean-0.06
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms15
N negative terms25
N of observations40
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error38
t(b)-0.11
p(b)0.54
t(a)1.35
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.17
Treynor index (mean / b)-11.40
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
Mean0.06
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.73
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.72
df39
t1.34
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.81
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.80
Sortino ratio1.74
Upside Potential Ratio3.50
Upside part of mean0.12
Downside part of mean-0.06
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms15
N negative terms25
N of observations40
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error38
t(b)-0.22
p(b)0.59
t(a)1.34
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.16
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.62
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.06
SD0.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.93
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.93
df887
t1.72
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.00
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.00
Sortino ratio1.44
Upside Potential Ratio6.69
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.23
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms313
N negative terms575
N of observations888
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.07
Covariance0.00
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error886
t(b)4.99
p(b)0
t(a)1.44
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Treynor index (mean / b)1.61
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
Mean0.06
SD0.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.90
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.90
df887
t1.66
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.97
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.97
Sortino ratio1.38
Upside Potential Ratio6.60
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.23
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms313
N negative terms575
N of observations888
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.07
Covariance0.00
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error886
t(b)5.00
p(b)0
t(a)1.42
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Treynor index (mean / b)1.55
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.29
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.22
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6728733599727616
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.55711186921142e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations40
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.95
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations888
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low95
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high125
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.57
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.35
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.04
Median0.05
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.06
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations27
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.08
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.40
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.32
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-405950624
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)609
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.59
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.59
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.13
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.10
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.38
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.18
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 483 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MNST long29May 12, 2022May 19, 2022$35
DLTR long15Apr 28, 2022May 17, 2022($154)
VRTX long9May 6, 2022May 12, 2022($161)
CEG long61Apr 28, 2022May 12, 2022($413)
DLTR long16Apr 8, 2022Apr 22, 2022$178
CRWD long11Apr 8, 2022Apr 12, 2022$11
AAPL long15Feb 28, 2022Mar 31, 2022$151
COST long4Mar 2, 2022Mar 31, 2022$206
TSLA long3Mar 18, 2022Mar 30, 2022$365
FTNT long8Mar 21, 2022Mar 24, 2022$40
ESLT long2Feb 10, 2022Mar 22, 2022$108
VECO long85Mar 2, 2022Mar 18, 2022$40
AVGO long4Feb 28, 2022Mar 18, 2022$54
QQQ long7Mar 3, 2022Mar 7, 2022($162)
NVDA long10Feb 28, 2022Mar 7, 2022($309)
AVGO long4Feb 9, 2022Feb 22, 2022($137)
AAPL long14Feb 2, 2022Feb 22, 2022($162)
QCOM long13Feb 9, 2022Feb 14, 2022($195)
MRVL long28Dec 23, 2021Jan 20, 2022($383)
QCOM long13Nov 29, 2021Jan 20, 2022($145)
DLTR long17Nov 29, 2021Jan 14, 2022($192)
CDNS long13Dec 23, 2021Jan 5, 2022($138)
ASML long3Dec 23, 2021Jan 5, 2022($115)
ALGN long4Dec 23, 2021Jan 5, 2022($209)
FB long7Dec 23, 2021Dec 28, 2021$86
XLNX long10Nov 29, 2021Dec 21, 2021($306)
NVDA long7Nov 29, 2021Dec 21, 2021($316)
MSFT long14Dec 1, 2021Dec 17, 2021($228)
TSLA long2Nov 29, 2021Dec 14, 2021($353)
ADBE long7Dec 1, 2021Dec 3, 2021($446)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.