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EMNQ Trader

Futures · Futures · Started Feb 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
67.0%
Max Drawdown
30.5%
Trades
531
Win Trades
56.7%
Profit Factor
1.60
Win Months
19.0%

About this strategy

mainly trade mini NQ and MNQ

Trend-following Financials / Indexes

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20201.617.97.71.22.00.81.33.71.40.40.444.1
20213.40.8-13.740.56.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.035.1
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/2/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$32,853
Age80 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades531
# Profitable301
% Profitable56.7%
Avg trade duration6.3 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown30.6%
drawdown periodMarch 22, 2021 - April 07, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)67.0%
Avg win$327
Avg loss$265

Ratios

W:L ratio1.62
Sharpe Ratio0.54
Sortino Ratio1.16
Calmar Ratio2.53

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life137.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)65.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)67.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.7%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)12.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss24.5%
Chance of 20% account loss1.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated93.7%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)680
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)909
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)689

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$265
Avg Win$327
# Winners301
Sum Trade PL (losers)$60,837
Sum Trade PL (winners)$98,343
Num Months Winners15
# Losers230
% Winners56.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table79

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)377.13
Avg Position Time (hrs)6.29
Avg Trade Length0.30
Last Trade Ago1942

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.56
Daily leverage (max)82.88

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta0.01
Treynor Index2.09

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.51
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.78
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats76.75
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats52.38
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.66
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.15
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.18

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.61
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.12
df14
t3.69
p0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.39
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.02
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.22
Sortino ratio73.16
Upside Potential Ratio74.06
Upside part of mean0.62
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms1
N of observations15
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.61
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance-0.01
r-0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.64
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error13
t(b)-0.84
p(b)0.64
t(a)3.74
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.89
Jensen alpha (a)0.64
Mean0.58
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.38
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.19
df14
t3.77
p0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.48
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.31
Sortino ratio69.36
Upside Potential Ratio70.25
Upside part of mean0.59
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms1
N of observations15
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.58
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance-0.01
r-0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.61
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error13
t(b)-0.88
p(b)0.65
t(a)3.84
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.95
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.99
Jensen alpha (a)0.61
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0.61
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.12
df330
t2.39
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.88
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.87
Sortino ratio4.69
Upside Potential Ratio7.99
Upside part of mean1.04
Downside part of mean-0.43
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms144
N negative terms187
N of observations331
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.61
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.41
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error329
t(b)0.29
p(b)0.38
t(a)2.37
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.12
Treynor index (mean / b)41.30
Jensen alpha (a)0.61
Mean0.57
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.10
df330
t2.37
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.85
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.35
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.85
Sortino ratio4.26
Upside Potential Ratio7.51
Upside part of mean1.01
Downside part of mean-0.44
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms144
N negative terms187
N of observations331
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.57
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.57
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error329
t(b)0.28
p(b)0.39
t(a)2.35
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.05
Treynor index (mean / b)42.84
Jensen alpha (a)0.57
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.73
SD0.43
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.69
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.68
df130
t1.19
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.46
Sortino ratio3.68
Upside Potential Ratio7.40
Upside part of mean1.47
Downside part of mean-0.74
Upside SD0.39
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms49
N negative terms82
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion0.73
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.43
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.71
Mean Square Error0.19
DF error129
t(b)0.31
p(b)0.48
t(a)1.14
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.94
Treynor index (mean / b)8.54
Jensen alpha (a)0.71
Mean0.64
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.58
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.57
df130
t1.12
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.35
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.35
Sortino ratio3.14
Upside Potential Ratio6.83
Upside part of mean1.40
Downside part of mean-0.76
Upside SD0.35
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms49
N negative terms82
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.27
Mean of criterion0.64
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.62
Mean Square Error0.17
DF error129
t(b)0.30
p(b)0.48
t(a)1.07
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.43
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.78
Treynor index (mean / b)8.46
Jensen alpha (a)0.62
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations15
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11.02
Median1.03
Quartile 31.08
Maximum1.18
Mean of quarter 11.01
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 31.07
Mean of quarter 41.12
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations331
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.24
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low24
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high47
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.50
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.24
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low12
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high24
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.53
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.13
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.01
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations25
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.20
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.80
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.31
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.33
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.20
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.20
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.93
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.61
Extreme Value Index (regression method)3.64
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.61
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-322530944
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)16
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.91
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.84
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)119.51
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal15.98
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.90
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.83
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.13
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs13.82
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal25.79
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.80
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.96
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.79
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs8.40
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal19.85

Trading record

Placed 729 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
NQ M1long2May 6, 2021May 6, 2021$3,094
NQ M1short4May 6, 2021May 6, 2021$4,568
NQ M1long3May 5, 2021May 6, 2021$121
NQ M1short2May 5, 2021May 5, 2021($1,116)
NQ M1long1May 5, 2021May 5, 2021($2,538)
NQ M1short1.901Apr 28, 2021Apr 28, 2021$394
NQ M1long1.901Apr 28, 2021Apr 28, 2021$213
NQ M1short4.753Apr 28, 2021Apr 28, 2021$680
NQ M1long1.901Apr 26, 2021Apr 26, 2021$878
NQ M1long0.912Apr 23, 2021Apr 23, 2021$654
MNQ M1long4.563Apr 21, 2021Apr 21, 2021$423
MNQ M1short4.563Apr 21, 2021Apr 21, 2021$80
MNQ M1short4.563Apr 21, 2021Apr 21, 2021$17
MNQ M1long1.825Apr 21, 2021Apr 21, 2021($45)
MNQ M1long1.825Apr 21, 2021Apr 21, 2021($60)
NQ M1long7.301Apr 8, 2021Apr 8, 2021$3,045
NQ M1long1.825Apr 8, 2021Apr 8, 2021$85
NQ M1long6.388Apr 7, 2021Apr 8, 2021$16,877
NQ M1short7.301Apr 7, 2021Apr 7, 2021($2,408)
NQ M1long5.475Apr 7, 2021Apr 7, 2021($72)
RTY M1long9.126Apr 7, 2021Apr 7, 2021$18
NQ M1short22.814Apr 6, 2021Apr 7, 2021($8,924)
RTY M1short9.126Apr 7, 2021Apr 7, 2021$429
NQ M1long0.912Apr 6, 2021Apr 6, 2021$413
NQ M1short10.038Apr 6, 2021Apr 6, 2021$350
NQ M1long14.601Apr 6, 2021Apr 6, 2021($1,782)
NQ M1long1.825Apr 6, 2021Apr 6, 2021$989
NQ M1long1.825Apr 6, 2021Apr 6, 2021($549)
NQ M1long1.825Apr 6, 2021Apr 6, 2021$473
NQ M1long1.825Apr 6, 2021Apr 6, 2021$1,121

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.