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Peak Crest Factor

Futures · Started Feb 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
165
Win Trades
98.8%
Profit Factor
0.60
Win Months
6.2%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20206.937.056.019.79.7-37.7-121.7-1.10.00.00.0-141.1
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/24/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age79 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades165
# Profitable163
% Profitable98.8%
Avg trade duration13.5 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodAug 24, 2020 - Aug 26, 2020
Cumul. Return-141.1%
Avg win$640
Avg loss$85,666

Ratios

W:L ratio0.61
Sharpe Ratio-1.35
Sortino Ratio-1.35
Calmar Ratio-1

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life137.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-141.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-1.4%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)928
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)537

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$85,666
Avg Win$640
# Winners163
Sum Trade PL (losers)$171,332
Sum Trade PL (winners)$104,368
Num Months Winners5
# Losers2
% Winners98.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table7

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)808.23
Avg Position Time (hrs)13.47
Avg Trade Length0.60
Last Trade Ago2197

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)10.23
Daily leverage (max)181.30

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.06
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.12
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat14.68
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades7.34
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-5.92
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.72
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades2.79
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-0.79
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.17

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.56
SD1.86
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.25
df5
t0.21
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.06
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.52
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.03
Sortino ratio0.40
Upside Potential Ratio1.90
Upside part of mean2.62
Downside part of mean-2.07
Upside SD1.01
Downside SD1.38
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms2
N of observations6
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.56
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion1.86
Covariance-0.29
r-0.34
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.41
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.84
Mean Square Error3.82
DF error4
t(b)-0.73
p(b)0.75
t(a)0.30
p(a)0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-6.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-6.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha8.58
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.39
Jensen alpha (a)0.84
Mean-4.91
SD5.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.93
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.78
df5
t-0.66
p0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.60
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.03
Sortino ratio-0.99
Upside Potential Ratio0.45
Upside part of mean2.22
Downside part of mean-7.13
Upside SD0.84
Downside SD4.95
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms2
N of observations6
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion-4.91
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion5.28
Covariance-0.63
r-0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)-2.68
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-4.63
Mean Square Error32.71
DF error4
t(b)-0.51
p(b)0.68
t(a)-0.57
p(a)0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-17.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta11.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-27.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha17.88
Treynor index (mean / b)1.83
Jensen alpha (a)-4.63
VaR(95%)0.95
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.97
VaR(95%)0.30
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.65
Mean-4.23
SD2.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.94
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.93
df146
t-1.46
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.69
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.56
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.69
Sortino ratio-2.17
Upside Potential Ratio2.71
Upside part of mean5.29
Downside part of mean-9.52
Upside SD0.98
Downside SD1.95
N nonnegative terms79
N negative terms68
N of observations147
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion-4.23
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion2.18
Covariance0.02
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-2.03
Mean Square Error4.76
DF error145
t(b)0.30
p(b)0.48
t(a)-1.45
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.94
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-10.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.52
Treynor index (mean / b)-33.80
Jensen alpha (a)-4.24
Mean-19.29
SD11.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.69
df146
t-1.27
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.31
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.93
Sortino ratio-1.70
Upside Potential Ratio0.43
Upside part of mean4.90
Downside part of mean-24.18
Upside SD0.85
Downside SD11.34
N nonnegative terms79
N negative terms68
N of observations147
Mean of predictor-0.02
Mean of criterion-19.29
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion11.35
Covariance-0.14
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.70
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-19.30
Mean Square Error129.56
DF error145
t(b)-0.33
p(b)0.52
t(a)-1.27
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-49.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha10.73
Treynor index (mean / b)27.54
Jensen alpha (a)-19.30
VaR(95%)0.71
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.77
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
Mean-5.20
SD2.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.27
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.25
df130
t-1.60
p0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.04
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.53
Sortino ratio-2.52
Upside Potential Ratio2.61
Upside part of mean5.39
Downside part of mean-10.60
Upside SD1.03
Downside SD2.07
N nonnegative terms67
N negative terms64
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.52
Mean of criterion-5.20
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion2.30
Covariance0.05
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.48
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-5.45
Mean Square Error5.29
DF error129
t(b)0.76
p(b)0.46
t(a)-1.67
p(a)0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.74
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-11.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-10.80
Jensen alpha (a)-5.45
Mean-22.09
SD12.01
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.84
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.83
df130
t-1.30
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.95
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.95
Sortino ratio-1.84
Upside Potential Ratio0.41
Upside part of mean4.96
Downside part of mean-27.05
Upside SD0.89
Downside SD12.01
N nonnegative terms67
N negative terms64
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion-22.09
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion12.01
Covariance-0.10
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.97
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-21.63
Mean Square Error145.34
DF error129
t(b)-0.29
p(b)0.52
t(a)-1.26
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-7.60
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-55.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha12.24
Treynor index (mean / b)22.72
Jensen alpha (a)-21.63
VaR(95%)0.73
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.79
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.20

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.03
Quartile 11.00
Median1.20
Quartile 31.37
Maximum1.51
Mean of quarter 10.49
Mean of quarter 21.19
Mean of quarter 31.20
Mean of quarter 41.46
Inter Quartile Range0.36
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.03
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations147
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.98
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.54
Mean of quarter 10.86
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.07
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low20
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.77
Number of outliers high13
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.16
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.93
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.84
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.82
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.64
Number of observations131
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.98
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.54
Mean of quarter 10.84
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low20
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.77
Number of outliers high13
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.16
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.83
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.82
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.74
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.54

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.97
Quartile 10.97
Median0.97
Quartile 30.97
Maximum0.97
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations19
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.28
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.64
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.22
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.22
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.37
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations15
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.04
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.35
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high0.64
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.19
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.34
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)3.57
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.82
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-262131840
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)2
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-1.83
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.99
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.02
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.03
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-1.78
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-3.55
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.29
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-2.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-2.90
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.26

Trading record

Placed 1144 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MNQ U0short65Jun 30, 2020Aug 26, 2020($171,371)
MNQ U0long2Jun 30, 2020Jun 30, 2020$185
MNQ U0long17Jun 26, 2020Jun 29, 2020$1,001
MNQ U0long13Jun 26, 2020Jun 26, 2020$327
MNQ U0long6Jun 25, 2020Jun 25, 2020$262
MNQ U0long3Jun 25, 2020Jun 25, 2020$117
MNQ U0long6Jun 25, 2020Jun 25, 2020$342
MNQ U0long12Jun 24, 2020Jun 24, 2020$572
MNQ U0short3Jun 23, 2020Jun 23, 2020$171
ES U0short3Jun 23, 2020Jun 23, 2020$143
MNQ U0short26Jun 22, 2020Jun 22, 2020$2,465
MNQ U0short4Jun 19, 2020Jun 19, 2020$407
MNQ U0long3Jun 18, 2020Jun 18, 2020$90
MNQ U0long5Jun 18, 2020Jun 18, 2020$295
MNQ U0short6Jun 17, 2020Jun 17, 2020$386
MNQ U0long5Jun 17, 2020Jun 17, 2020$269
MNQ U0short4Jun 16, 2020Jun 16, 2020$535
MNQ U0short3Jun 15, 2020Jun 15, 2020$198
MNQ M0short3Jun 15, 2020Jun 15, 2020$226
MNQ M0short30Jun 15, 2020Jun 15, 2020$187
MNQ M0long18Jun 11, 2020Jun 11, 2020$1,002
MNQ M0short31Jun 9, 2020Jun 11, 2020$2,147
MNQ M0short15Jun 5, 2020Jun 8, 2020$1,159
MNQ M0short9Jun 4, 2020Jun 4, 2020$981
MNQ M0short17Jun 3, 2020Jun 3, 2020$243
MNQ M0short13Jun 1, 2020Jun 2, 2020$1,297
MNQ M0long10May 29, 2020May 29, 2020$938
MNQ M0short22May 28, 2020May 28, 2020$1,191
MNQ M0long17May 27, 2020May 27, 2020$1,332
MNQ M0short48May 22, 2020May 26, 2020$2,651

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.