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Equity · Stocks · Started Mar 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-14.4%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
699
Win Trades
55.8%
Profit Factor
0.90
Win Months
26.6%

About this strategy

- 10+ years trading experience
- Swing trade under/over-valued stocks both in short-term and long-term
- Current Capital: $100,000 Please use the correct scale factor. My broker account is large than my model account. I cannot re-scale my model account size at the moment because it requires to close all my positions. Please be aware of this and use the correct scale size and the model account will show relative larger volatility.

Hedged Equity Pairs Trading / Relative Value

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202021.221.43.45.213.7-4.51.6-8.411.820.0117.2
20214.2-0.3-9.51.3-0.322.1-20.68.7-18.036.65.0-43.0-33.0
2022-47.936.1-3.0-11.1-10.6-6.32.4-0.1-19.05.7-14.7-17.6-68.4
202323.8-64.5-18.5-249.4-5.6-111.7176.7-96.7-9822.5-54.4-31.9-184.2-86.5
2024-232.2-26.1-72.4-13.1-17.1-30.6-34.1-3.9-43.4-73.1-84.8-448.5-236.4
2025-52.5-8.4-33.6-8.8-32.5-31.5-5.6-1.5-18.6-19.3-113.0-7.0
2026-30.9-1.2-11.2-30.3-25.8-620.6-72.410.520.5-245.9

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/13/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$18,000
Age79 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades699
# Profitable390
% Profitable55.8%
Avg trade duration37.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodFeb 14, 2024 - May 19, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)-14.4%
Avg win$255
Avg loss$345

Ratios

W:L ratio0.94
Sharpe Ratio-0.57
Sortino Ratio-0.61
Calmar Ratio-0.05

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.17
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life182.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-246.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-14.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-4.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity1066.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.2%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered20.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.8%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss86.5%
Chance of 20% account loss67.5%
Chance of 30% account loss52.0%
Chance of 40% account loss31.0%
Chance of 50% account loss18.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)4.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$345
Avg Win$255
# Winners390
Sum Trade PL (losers)$106,752
Sum Trade PL (winners)$99,634
Num Months Winners18
# Losers309
% Winners55.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct447

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table38

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)53819.10
Avg Position Time (hrs)896.98
Avg Trade Length37.40
Last Trade Ago1663

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.68
Daily leverage (max)31.61

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.75
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-30.57
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.28
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats65.62
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats64.14
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.50
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.27
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.08

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.54
SD2.72
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.57
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.56
df71
t1.39
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.37
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.37
Sortino ratio2.05
Upside Potential Ratio3.85
Upside part of mean2.89
Downside part of mean-1.35
Upside SD2.64
Downside SD0.75
N nonnegative terms37
N negative terms35
N of observations72
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion1.54
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion2.72
Covariance0.07
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)3.56
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.98
Mean Square Error7.26
DF error70
t(b)1.60
p(b)0.06
t(a)0.85
p(a)0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta8.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.28
Treynor index (mean / b)0.43
Jensen alpha (a)0.98
Mean-0.09
SD1.67
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.05
df71
t-0.13
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.75
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.85
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.75
Sortino ratio-0.08
Upside Potential Ratio1.50
Upside part of mean1.75
Downside part of mean-1.84
Upside SD1.17
Downside SD1.17
N nonnegative terms37
N negative terms35
N of observations72
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion-0.09
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion1.67
Covariance0.07
r0.28
b (slope, estimate of beta)3.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.56
Mean Square Error2.60
DF error70
t(b)2.41
p(b)0.01
t(a)-0.82
p(a)0.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.81
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.03
Jensen alpha (a)-0.56
VaR(95%)0.55
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.63
VaR(95%)0.26
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.49
Mean2.15
SD3.50
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.61
df1581
t1.51
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.41
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.41
Sortino ratio2.45
Upside Potential Ratio8.49
Upside part of mean7.46
Downside part of mean-5.31
Upside SD3.39
Downside SD0.88
N nonnegative terms789
N negative terms793
N of observations1582
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion2.15
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion3.50
Covariance0.06
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.60
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.89
Mean Square Error12.14
DF error1580
t(b)3.54
p(b)0.46
t(a)1.33
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.67
Treynor index (mean / b)1.34
Jensen alpha (a)1.89
Mean-0.08
SD1.86
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.04
df1581
t-0.10
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.84
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.76
Sortino ratio-0.06
Upside Potential Ratio4.75
Upside part of mean5.82
Downside part of mean-5.90
Upside SD1.40
Downside SD1.23
N nonnegative terms789
N negative terms793
N of observations1582
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion-0.08
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion1.86
Covariance0.05
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.36
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.27
Mean Square Error3.39
DF error1580
t(b)5.70
p(b)0.43
t(a)-0.37
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.83
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.20
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.06
Jensen alpha (a)-0.27
VaR(95%)0.17
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.21
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
Mean19.62
SD10.83
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.80
df130
t1.28
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.59
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.98
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.58
Sortino ratio15.21
Upside Potential Ratio22.21
Upside part of mean28.64
Downside part of mean-9.02
Upside SD10.78
Downside SD1.29
N nonnegative terms67
N negative terms64
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion19.62
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion10.83
Covariance0.25
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)13.47
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)16.12
Mean Square Error114.66
DF error129
t(b)1.97
p(b)0.39
t(a)1.06
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta27.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-14.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha46.28
Treynor index (mean / b)1.46
Jensen alpha (a)16.12
Mean5.13
SD4.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.26
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.25
df130
t0.89
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.52
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.03
Sortino ratio2.75
Upside Potential Ratio8.30
Upside part of mean15.48
Downside part of mean-10.35
Upside SD3.61
Downside SD1.87
N nonnegative terms67
N negative terms64
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion5.13
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion4.07
Covariance0.15
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)7.80
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)3.18
Mean Square Error15.52
DF error129
t(b)3.10
p(b)0.33
t(a)0.57
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.82
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta12.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-7.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha14.27
Treynor index (mean / b)0.66
Jensen alpha (a)3.18
VaR(95%)0.33
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.39
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations72
Minimum0.18
Quartile 10.87
Median1.02
Quartile 31.15
Maximum6.36
Mean of quarter 10.61
Mean of quarter 20.94
Mean of quarter 31.08
Mean of quarter 41.89
Inter Quartile Range0.28
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.25
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high2.84
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.22
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.37
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.46
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.18
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.41
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.53
Number of observations1582
Minimum0.29
Quartile 10.98
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum8.18
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low77
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.83
Number of outliers high102
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.29
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.33
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.16
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations131
Minimum0.32
Quartile 10.95
Median1.00
Quartile 31.05
Maximum8.18
Mean of quarter 10.88
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.41
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.01
Mean of outliers low0.32
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high2.27
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.24
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.18
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.18
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.15

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.12
Median0.23
Quartile 30.61
Maximum0.99
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.23
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.99
Inter Quartile Range0.49
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations23
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.05
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.99
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.30
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high0.50
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.75
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.32
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.37
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.95
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.25
Expected Shortfall (regression method)4.56
Number of observations6
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.22
Median0.47
Quartile 30.54
Maximum0.68
Mean of quarter 10.10
Mean of quarter 20.42
Mean of quarter 30.51
Mean of quarter 40.62
Inter Quartile Range0.32
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-393555168
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)460
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.06
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.06
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.10
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.04
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.05
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.16
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.23
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)24.39
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)173.14
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)253.08
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs281.48
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal443.76

Trading record

Placed 2016 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
BKKT long800Jan 24, 2022Feb 21, 2022$970
ASTS long400Jan 24, 2022Feb 21, 2022$368
ML long2000Jan 18, 2022Feb 21, 2022($2,436)
MES H2short10Jan 31, 2022Jan 31, 2022$379
IONQ2215S12.5 short5Jan 10, 2022Jan 27, 2022($757)
PL2215S5 short40Dec 22, 2021Jan 27, 2022($491)
GENI long300Jan 25, 2022Jan 27, 2022$107
MNQ H2short10Jan 25, 2022Jan 25, 2022($266)
CRWD long20Jan 18, 2022Jan 25, 2022($224)
MNQ H2long10Jan 24, 2022Jan 24, 2022($815)
IONQ2221M16 short1Dec 22, 2021Jan 22, 2022$199
MNQ H2short10Jan 21, 2022Jan 21, 2022$1,005
UPST long20Jan 21, 2022Jan 21, 2022($124)
NFLX long3Jan 21, 2022Jan 21, 2022$52
MYM H2short30Jan 18, 2022Jan 18, 2022($104)
MYM H2short30Jan 12, 2022Jan 12, 2022$58
MNQ H2short20Jan 4, 2022Jan 4, 2022$483
PLBY long200Dec 23, 2021Dec 28, 2021$52
ELY long200Dec 23, 2021Dec 28, 2021$40
UPST long40Dec 23, 2021Dec 27, 2021$673
JD short100Dec 23, 2021Dec 23, 2021($171)
RIVN long100Dec 23, 2021Dec 23, 2021$103
MYM H2short30Dec 21, 2021Dec 21, 2021($166)
BIRD long400Dec 13, 2021Dec 17, 2021$575
SNOW short30Dec 9, 2021Dec 15, 2021$233
TSLA short5Dec 10, 2021Dec 15, 2021$142
MTTR long300Dec 15, 2021Dec 15, 2021($185)
FAS long50Dec 14, 2021Dec 15, 2021($162)
BZFD long600Dec 10, 2021Dec 14, 2021($275)
PLBY long400Dec 13, 2021Dec 13, 2021$75

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.