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Alfonso

Equity · Stocks · Started Jul 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
8.1%
Max Drawdown
61.5%
Trades
171
Win Trades
49.1%
Profit Factor
2.20
Win Months
56.0%

About this strategy

This strategy looks to invest in both growth and income

Hedged Equity Sector Rotation

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2020-1.512.5-9.61.330.515.052.3
2021-0.411.07.37.2-5.00.11.76.2-7.614.7-4.21.434.5
2022-12.9-2.95.7-15.6-5.1-19.316.7-6.3-16.89.17.3-9.5-44.4
202315.1-6.0-4.2-0.1-10.79.37.4-8.18.3-2.35.83.916.2
2024-0.64.12.0-3.31.41.60.81.51.0-0.45.60.714.9
2025-1.2-3.1-2.1-3.07.22.30.80.33.12.2-1.5-0.54.2
20261.4-2.2-5.67.12.10.9-1.7-0.20.82.1

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/7/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$80,000
Age75 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades171
# Profitable84
% Profitable49.1%
Avg trade duration0.0 minutes
Max peak-to-valley drawdown61.5%
drawdown periodNov 09, 2021 - Feb 28, 2023
Annual Return (Compounded)8.1%
Avg win$1,089
Avg loss$651

Ratios

W:L ratio2.21
Sharpe Ratio0.32
Sortino Ratio0.47
Calmar Ratio0.30

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.53
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life143.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-83.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)8.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)8.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity34.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.1%
Short Options - Percent Covered0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.9%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss89.5%
Chance of 20% account loss76.5%
Chance of 30% account loss48.5%
Chance of 40% account loss38.5%
Chance of 50% account loss16.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)7.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)1.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$643
Avg Win$1,102
# Winners83
Sum Trade PL (losers)$56,597
Sum Trade PL (winners)$91,479
Num Months Winners42
# Losers88
% Winners48.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct16826

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table75

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)851212.69
Avg Position Time (hrs)14186.88
Avg Trade Length591.10
Last Trade Ago956

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.73
Daily leverage (max)2.63

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.75
Treynor Index0.03

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades2.95
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.89
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats60.18
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats22.21
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.29
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.27
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.37

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.18
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.51
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.50
df41
t0.95
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.56
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.55
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.55
Sortino ratio0.83
Upside Potential Ratio2.58
Upside part of mean0.55
Downside part of mean-0.37
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms23
N negative terms19
N of observations42
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.18
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance0.05
r0.74
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.22
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.12
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error40
t(b)6.96
p(b)0
t(a)-0.90
p(a)0.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)0.15
Jensen alpha (a)-0.12
Mean0.12
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.34
df41
t0.64
p0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.39
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.71
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.39
Sortino ratio0.51
Upside Potential Ratio2.23
Upside part of mean0.51
Downside part of mean-0.40
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms23
N negative terms19
N of observations42
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance0.05
r0.77
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.30
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.17
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error40
t(b)7.56
p(b)0
t(a)-1.34
p(a)0.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.09
Treynor index (mean / b)0.09
Jensen alpha (a)-0.17
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
Mean0.16
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.54
df917
t1.02
p0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.59
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.59
Sortino ratio0.80
Upside Potential Ratio8.53
Upside part of mean1.69
Downside part of mean-1.53
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms482
N negative terms436
N of observations918
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.04
r0.57
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.75
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error916
t(b)21.08
p(b)0
t(a)-0.22
p(a)0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)0.21
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
Mean0.12
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.40
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.40
df917
t0.75
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.45
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.65
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.45
Sortino ratio0.57
Upside Potential Ratio8.25
Upside part of mean1.67
Downside part of mean-1.55
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms482
N negative terms436
N of observations918
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.04
r0.57
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.75
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error916
t(b)21.00
p(b)0
t(a)-0.42
p(a)0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.82
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.15
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.46
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.98
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.97
df130
t1.40
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.81
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.75
Sortino ratio3.98
Upside Potential Ratio11.22
Upside part of mean1.29
Downside part of mean-0.83
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms76
N negative terms55
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.08
Mean of criterion0.46
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.08
r0.88
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.55
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.13
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)20.60
p(b)0.03
t(a)-0.80
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)0.84
Jensen alpha (a)-0.13
Mean0.43
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.90
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.89
df130
t1.35
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.68
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.89
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.67
Sortino ratio3.71
Upside Potential Ratio10.93
Upside part of mean1.27
Downside part of mean-0.84
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms76
N negative terms55
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.01
Mean of criterion0.43
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.07
r0.87
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.55
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.12
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)20.06
p(b)0.03
t(a)-0.77
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.50
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.79
Jensen alpha (a)-0.12
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations42
Minimum0.80
Quartile 10.97
Median1.01
Quartile 31.06
Maximum1.27
Mean of quarter 10.90
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.14
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.81
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.24
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.28
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.09
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.67
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.19
Number of observations918
Minimum0.90
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low27
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high35
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.13
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low8
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.22
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.09
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.03
Median0.04
Quartile 30.16
Maximum0.51
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.51
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.51
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations31
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.51
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high0.23
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.63
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.46
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.52
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations16
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.09
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.04
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-370734048
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)476
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.19
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.16
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.31
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.31
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.89
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.19
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.15
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.30
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.07
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.30
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.52
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.58
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)6.55
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs10.06
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal21.71

Trading record

Placed 29 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SICP long1.6Feb 10, 2022Sep 5, 2023($196)
SWAN long40Feb 15, 2023Sep 5, 2023($1)
SDOW long28Oct 25, 2022Sep 5, 2023($212)
SQQQ long100Oct 25, 2022Sep 5, 2023($3,066)
NURE long20Apr 13, 2022Sep 5, 2023($213)
HJEN long108Mar 7, 2022Sep 5, 2023($772)
MDV long80Feb 18, 2022Sep 5, 2023($900)
DRUP long40Apr 5, 2022Sep 5, 2023($32)
HYDR long32Mar 7, 2022Sep 5, 2023($273)
TQQQ long40Feb 17, 2022Sep 5, 2023($172)
SDIG long0.8Feb 10, 2022Sep 5, 2023($91)
IWIN long10.4Feb 7, 2022Sep 5, 2023($4)
ISHP long20Jan 7, 2022Sep 5, 2023($170)
WHR long1.6Feb 7, 2022Sep 5, 2023($96)
IBUY long44Jan 21, 2022Sep 5, 2023($1,050)
SVOL long60Jan 7, 2022Sep 5, 2023($260)
IAI long12Jan 7, 2022Sep 5, 2023($221)
VIS long3.2Jan 7, 2022Sep 5, 2023$16
GDXJ long24Jan 7, 2022Sep 5, 2023$41
PBW long20Jan 7, 2022Sep 5, 2023($607)
KIE long20Jan 7, 2022Sep 5, 2023$36
SQQQ long20Sep 9, 2022Sep 29, 2022$328
SDOW long40Sep 9, 2022Sep 29, 2022$376
VIXY long80Sep 9, 2022Sep 29, 2022$270
SPOT long0.8Feb 8, 2022Jun 30, 2022($57)
ESPO long36Jan 31, 2022Jun 28, 2022($459)
SDS long110.4Mar 29, 2022Apr 26, 2022$599
SUBZ long360Jan 21, 2022Apr 6, 2022($113)
SH long80Feb 9, 2022Feb 10, 2022$13
SDS long80Feb 2, 2022Feb 10, 2022$105

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.